Days before projected monsoon onset, Cyclone Remal starts to brew over BoB

• A Depression is likely to form over the BoB by Friday and conditions are favourable for intensification into Cyclonic Storm ‘Remal’.
• IMD has issued warnings for rough seas and strong winds, advising fishermen to avoid the Bay of Bengal from May 23 onwards.
• Cyclone Remal could significantly influence the monsoon's arrival in India, aiding or delaying its onset based on its trajectory.

The Bay of Bengal is brewing trouble and after a prolonged lull, India might soon witness a cyclone forming in the area. Conditions are becoming favourable for the development of a cyclonic storm named ‘Remal,’ which means 'sand' in Arabic. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has its eye on the system, urging caution for fisherfolk and coastal communities.

The current weather pattern is ripe for a storm's genesis. Warm sea surface temperatures exceeding 30°C provide the necessary fuel, while the eastward-moving Madden-Julian Oscillation – a band of clouds and winds – could further enhance cyclonic development.

However, the monsoon's northward march might throw a wrench in the works. This rapid progression could hinder Remal's growth, potentially limiting it to a "monsoon depression" bringing heavy rain but lacking the strong winds of a full-fledged cyclone.

Global forecast models paint a conflicting picture of Remal's path. Some predict a northwestward movement towards eastern India, potentially intensifying into a severe storm. Others suggest a northward track towards Bangladesh, weakening due to cooler air.

Regardless of its final form, Remal is likely to bring heavy rain to the eastern coast and northeastern states, with areas in Assam, Meghalaya, and Manipur potentially receiving up to 200 mm of rainfall over a period of three days.

The cyclone's trajectory will significantly influence the monsoon's arrival. If Remal targets the Indian coast, it could actually aid the monsoon's onset. Conversely, a northward movement towards Myanmar could delay the monsoon's arrival.

The IMD has issued warnings for rough seas and strong winds, advising fishermen to avoid venturing into the Bay of Bengal from May 23 onwards. Those already at sea should return to the coast by then.

With the situation still developing, close monitoring is ongoing. Weather updates and alerts will be crucial for ensuring safety and preparedness, particularly for coastal communities and those dependent on maritime activities. Keep an eye on official weather reports for the latest developments.