Chinese coast guard sailors were seen wielding knives, an axe and other weapons during a clash with <keyword id="22132882" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Philippine-naval-vessels" source="Orion">Philippine naval vessels</keyword> near a strategic reef in the <keyword id="19911056" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="South-China-Sea" source="keywords">South China Sea</keyword>. This incident marks another tense confrontation between Chinese and Philippine ships in recent months, amid Beijing's intensified efforts to assert control over the disputed region.<br /><br />According to an AFP report, the confrontation occurred on Monday, when Philippine forces were attempting to deliver supplies to marines stationed on a deliberately grounded warship at the disputed <keyword id="2174618" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Second-Thomas-Shoal" source="Orion">Second Thomas Shoal</keyword>. This move was initially made in 1999, with the motive of reinforcing Manila's territorial claims.<br /><br />General Romeo Brawner, head of the <keyword id="300054" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Philippine-military" source="Orion">Philippine military</keyword>, reported that the Filipino crew, outnumbered and unarmed, defended themselves using "bare hands". During the altercation, a Filipino sailor lost a thumb, and the Chinese coast guard allegedly seized or destroyed Philippine gear, including weapons, as per the military's account.<br /><br />Late Wednesday, the Philippine military released fresh footage depicting <keyword id="22116235" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Chinese-sailors" source="keywords">Chinese sailors</keyword> in small boats, brandishing knives and sticks. The sailors were seen hitting an inflatable boat while shouting, as a siren wailed in the background.<br /><br /><div type="twitter" handle="barnabychuck" handlename="barnabychuck" favoritecount="0" retweetcount="0" id="1803455907113869537"></div><br />In one video clip shared by Manila, a Chinese sailor on the deck of a boat is clearly seen brandishing an axe. Another segment shows a sailor using a stick to strike the inflatable boat, while a second man stabs the boat with a knife.<br /><br />According to the Philippines military, the axe-wielding sailor "threatened to injure" a Filipino soldier, with others "explicitly threatening to harm" Philippine troops. A senior navy official described the actions of the Chinese coast guard as reminiscent of a "band of barbarians."<br /><br />But in a major twist, photos released by Beijing's state media on Wednesday contrast sharply with Manila's footage. They do not show any instances of Chinese forces with weapons.<br /><br />Responding to Manila's videos, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian dismissed the violence claims as "totally bogus accusations that confuse black with white". He blamed the Philippines for heightening tensions, accusing them of attempting to ram Chinese boats and alleging that Philippine vessels were smuggling building materials and military equipment.<br />

China Philippines clash: What happened between Chinese coast guard sailors and Philippine naval vessels this week?

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Chinese state media shared a video of what it characterized as a submarine detection device dropped by a US Navy aircraft.</li><li>The apparent sonobuoy was discovered in the South China Sea near the Second Thomas Shoal. </li></ul><p>China's coast guard found a submarine detection device dropped by a US Navy aircraft somewhere in the South China Sea, a state broadcaster reported.</p><p>Many militaries, including China, use sonobuoys and acoustic sensors. Maritime patrol aircraft often use them and other detectors in open waters to track <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-nuclear-submarine-surfaces-off-norway-in-rare-flex-2024-6">submarine movements and locations</a>.</p><p>Video footage <a target="_blank" href="https://weibo.com/u/7040797671?tabtype=newVideo&amp;layerid=5049584549631369">shared</a> by Chinese <a target="_blank" href="https://news.cgtn.com/news/2024-06-26/China-salvages-submarine-detector-dropped-by-U-S-in-South-China-Sea-1uKElQYdqYU/p.html">state media</a> on Wednesday showed a US Navy aircraft, what appears to be a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-p8a-poseidon-sub-hunting-aircraft-features-sales-2018-5">P-8 Poseidon</a>, dropping an object resembling a sonobuoy into the South China Sea.</p><p>Business Insider was unable to independently verify the reported details of the video posted to Chinese social media. The footage showed a close-up examination of the object, which Yuyuan Tiantan, part of the China Media Group, identified as a "submarine detector" and reported was recovered by the Chinese coast guard.</p><p>The video identifies the object's manufacturer as Ultra Electronics Undersea Sensor Systems, Inc. It's a British company which makes sonobuoys and underwater sensors.</p><p>The US Department of Defense didn't respond to Business Insider's request for comment.</p><div type="image" title="US Navy P-8A Poseidon flying over the Pacific Northwest" height="532" width="800" msid="111323149" hostid="261"></div><p>Chinese state media <a target="_blank" href="https://news.cgtn.com/news/2024-06-26/China-salvages-submarine-detector-dropped-by-U-S-in-South-China-Sea-1uKElQYdqYU/p.html">said</a> its coast guard picked up the device near the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea, contested territory <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/philippines-soldiers-bare-hands-fight-armed-china-coast-guard-swords-2024-6">claimed by both China and the Philippines</a>.</p><p>The two South China Sea claimants have <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-philippines-ship-confrontation-with-water-cannons-video-2024-4">clashed in the area</a>, increasingly over the past few years and especially in recent months, with Chinese Coast Guard ships firing water cannons at Philippine supply boats and ramming Philippine vessels.</p><p>Chinese coast guard personnel recently disrupted a supply run with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/philippines-soldiers-bare-hands-fight-armed-china-coast-guard-swords-2024-6">bladed weapons</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/philippine-general-accuses-china-of-piracy-south-china-sea-clash-2024-6">drawing complaints of piracy</a> from Manila.</p><p>The Second Thomas Shoal, which China calls Ren'ai Jiao, is located far from the Chinese mainland, as well as the Yulin Naval Base on Hainan Island, where China houses its submarines, though its boats operate across the strategic South China Sea.</p><div type="image" title="China submarine" height="683" width="1024" msid="111323203" hostid="261"></div><p>Sonobuoys and other similar sensors are small, common instruments in anti-submarine warfare and underwater acoustic research. They have long been used by militaries for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-is-developing-systems-to-hunt-us-submarines-from-the-air-2024-5">monitoring submarine locations and movements</a>, as well as non-military purposes.</p><p>There are various kinds of sonobuoys that deliver active and passive collection of data or serve specific operations. In the state media video, China said that the "probe" was being used to detect subs and counter sub signals.</p><p>Like the US Navy, China has its own anti-submarine warfare and maritime surveillance aircraft, such as the KQ-200 that are capable of deploying sonobuoys like the SQ-4s and SQ-5s.</p><p>In response to the recent discovery by the Chinese coast guard, Ministry of National Defense spokesperson Wu Qian said that China firmly opposes US warships and aircraft stirring up trouble in the South China Sea, per Chinese media reporting.</p><p>US military ships and aircraft routinely operate in the international waters of the South China Sea unilaterally and with allies and partner nations in support of what it calls a "free-and-open Indo-Pacific," flying and sailing wherever international law allows.</p>

China says it picked up a submarine detector dropped by a US Navy aircraft in the South China Sea

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A Philippine general called China's coast guard pirates after a violent confrontation.</li><li>China's Coast Guard disrupted a Philippine resupply mission at Second Thomas Shoal.</li></ul><p>The Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of the Philippines accused China of behaving like pirates after members of China's coast guard aggressively clashed with Philippine vessels running a resupply mission on Monday, wielding bladed weapons.</p><p>"Only pirates do this," General Romeo Brawner Jr. said in a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.facebook.com/armedforcesofthephilippines/posts/pfbid02fYab9bg4Td7zTHsiuoioa3igACKxnLQEEjLJ6aSv6qgFXpaQRdEqXxDAbfT51Vtal">social media post</a> regarding the recent actions of the Chinese coast guard. "Only pirates board, steal, and destroy ships, equipment, and belongings."</p><p>Beijing has blamed the Philippines for the incident, with a foreign ministry spokesperson saying Thursday that "the Philippine side has been calling white black and falsely accusing China."</p><p>Footage of the encounter showed China's Coast Guard fleet surrounding Philippine vessels in the South China Sea that were in the process of conducting a resupply and rotation mission. The Chinese vessels closed in and tensions flared. The incident marked an escalation amid months of confrontations in the area.</p><p>Members of the Coast Guard are seen in the videos wielding blades and removing objects from the Philippine vessel.</p><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This is how barbaric the Chinese Coast Guard is in the recent RoRe mission of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. These videos show how blatantly they use physical attacks and violence to prevent our soldiers from completing the legitimate and humanitarian resupply mission to… <a href="https://t.co/7vzFDem1DE">pic.twitter.com/7vzFDem1DE</a></p>— Jay Tarriela (@jaytaryela) <a href="https://twitter.com/jaytaryela/status/1803547421399720267?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 19, 2024</a></blockquote> <p>The Philippine general added that the crew members aboard the ambushed vessels were outnumbered and "fought with bare hands" against the Chinese coast guard personnel.</p><p>Though the Chinese coast guard behavior documented by the Philippines is aggressive, it's not piracy, an expert explained, but it's still a serious problem.</p><p>The Chinese coast guard might have used pirate-like tactics, but it's not legally piracy. The incident wasn't on the high seas beyond a country's jurisdiction, and as Harrison Prétat, deputy director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies' Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, told Business Insider, it wasn't for monetary gain.</p><p>The Chinese Coast Guard is "trying to prevent the Philippines from resupplying the BRP Sierra Madre, a ship grounded on Second Thomas Shoal since 1999 where the Philippines maintains a garrison of marines," Prétat explained.</p><p>He added that the Permanent Court of Arbitration declared in 2016 that Second Thomas Shoal was a part of the Philippines' exclusive economic zone. Therefore, the Philippines should be able to access Second Thomas and even build artificial structures there in accordance with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, to which China is a signatory.</p><div type="image" title="An aerial view of Scarborough Shoal." height="3717" width="5588" msid="111174013" hostid="261" sizebytes="257174"></div><p>Although the country is a signatory, "China rejects the 2016 ruling and is attempting to enforce its control over maritime activity within its nine-dash line claim," Prétat said. The nine-dash line is a map marking designating China's sweeping and controversial claims to the South China Sea.</p><p>This isn't the first time China's coast guard has acted aggressively toward the Philippines at sea, especially over parts of the hotly contested Spratley Islands. In recent months, Chinese ships have also fired <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-philippines-ship-confrontation-with-water-cannons-video-2024-4">water canons</a> at Philippine vessels and even rammed them. Equipment has been damaged, and crew members have been injured. But this week's incident was notable, reaching a new level.</p><p>Per other reporting on the incident, Brawner said that the Chinese guardsmen "took guns and other equipment, destroyed our equipment onboard, including the motors. They punctured our rigid-hulled inflatable boats." One of the Filipino crewmembers even lost his thumb in the incident.</p><p>"This latest incident is a significant escalation from recent tensions, which previously involved water cannons targeting Philippine civilian boats—this time, the inflatable boat that was boarded and destroyed by Chinese personnel was a Philippine Navy vessel," Prétat said. That raises the stakes.</p><p>The maritime expert noted that the attack "could trigger US obligations under the Mutual Defense Treaty." Prétat said it could raise the risk of a conflict between the US and China. Manila does not, however, plan to <a target="_blank" href="https://apnews.com/article/south-china-sea-territorial-dispute-philippines-us-c7f22418e276d689c2dcacfed4d0a494">invoke the treaty</a>. It's a means to prevent further escalation, but the Philippines is demanding China return seized equipment and pay for damages.</p><p>US ambassador to the Philippines MaryKay Carlson said this week in a post on X that the US "condemns the PRC's aggressive, dangerous maneuvers," referring to China by the acronym for People's Republic of China.</p>

'Only pirates do this,' a general said after China's Coast Guard, armed with bladed weapons, clashed with Philippine boats in the South China Sea

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US Adm. John Aquilino said China is gradually getting bolder and acting more dangerously.</li><li>In an interview with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/f926f540-d5c2-43f2-bd8f-c83c0d52bcda">FT,</a> the INDOPACOM chief described the strategy as a 'boiling frog' tactic.</li></ul><p>The US Indo-Pacific Command's outgoing chief said China has been turning up the heat on its neighbors with progressively bolder military actions in a pattern designed to catch them off guard.</p><p>Adm. John Aquilino described Beijing's strategy to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/f926f540-d5c2-43f2-bd8f-c83c0d52bcda">Financial Times</a> as a "boiling frog" tactic, or to gradually step up aggression so that other nations don't immediately realize when a critical point in conflict is reached.</p><p>In an interview published on Sunday, he told the FT that these nations must speak up and call out aggressive behavior from Beijing.</p><p>"There needs to be a continual description of China's bad behavior that is outside legal international norms. And that story has to be told by all the nations in the region," he said.</p><p>Aquilino, who led US forces in the Indo-Pacific for three years, cited two major conflict points involving China — Taiwan and the Second Thomas Shoal.</p><p>Beijing has continually been posturing more aggressively toward Taiwan, which it claims as its territory.</p><p>Chinese leaders are shifting to more war-like rhetoric against the self-governed island, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/taiwan-deploys-fighter-jets-ships-10-china-warplanes-fly-airspace-2023-6">regularly send dozens of fighter jets at a time</a> across the median line of the Taiwan Strait. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-high-altitude-balloons-taiwan-2024-1">Balloons</a> that Taiwan says are from China also often pass over the island's airspace.</p><p>While not seen as an outright act of war, the incursions are typically described as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-steps-up-grey-zone-warfare-exhaust-taiwan-defence-report-says-2024-03-07/">"grey-zone"</a> warfare that forces a response from Taiwanese defenses and keeps its people on edge.</p><p>"This is the pressure campaign in action. I've watched it increase in scope and scale, it is not slowing down," Aquilino told the FT.</p><p>He said China has taken conflict one step further against the Philippines at the Second Thomas Shoal, a reef in the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/scarborough-shoal-chinese-fishing-vessels-pumping-cyanide-contested-waters-philippines-2024-2">Spratly Islands of the South China Sea.</a></p><p>The islands are internationally recognized as under the Philippines' jurisdiction, but China has in recent years sought to enforce its own claim on them — coalescing into a key point of tension between both nations.</p><p>Since 2021, Chinese Coast Guard vessels were reported to have used water cannons on Philippine ships resupplying forces at the shoal. And in October 2023, a Chinese vessel rammed into a Philippine Coast Guard ship, widely seen as an escalation.</p><p>"Philippine coastguardsmen and service members have been injured. That's a step up the ladder beyond a pressure campaign," Aquilino said.</p><p>The admiral is set to retire after he hands leadership of the Indo-Pacific Command to Adm. Samuel Paparo next month. During his tenure overseeing the region, Aquilino repeatedly warned of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-building-military-scale-not-seen-wwii-invade-taiwan-aquilino-2024-3">China as a primary growing danger to its neighbors.</a></p><p>Paparo, on his part, has also <a target="_blank" href="https://news.usni.org/2024/02/27/sasc-votes-paparo-nomination-for-indopacom-out-of-committee">named China</a> as one of the most pressing threats to US military interests in the region.</p><p>Beijing has been sharply increasing its military spending, pumping <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pentagon-defense-budget-china-undersells-true-military-strength-analysts-2024-2">$230 billion into its defense budget in 2022</a>, per a 2023 Pentagon report. While the US defense budget was nearly four times as large as China's that year, military observers say a one-to-one comparison can be misleading because Chinese spending typically stretches further due to lower labor and manufacturing costs.</p><p>The Chinese Embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment sent outside regular business hours by Business Insider.</p>

China is gradually amping up its military aggression in a 'boiling frog' strategy, US Indo-Pacific commander says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The Philippines turned a crumbling warship into a military outpost in the South China Sea. </li><li>The ship was deliberately run aground to reinforce their sovereignty claims in the region.</li></ul><p>A high seas scuffle between the Chinese and Philippine coast guards thousands of miles from the US mainland prompted the State Department to chastise China this week.</p><p>China, by "employing unsafe blocking maneuvers," had "interfered with the Philippines' lawful exercise of high seas freedom of navigation," US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller <a href="https://www.state.gov/u-s-support-for-the-philippines-in-the-south-china-sea-5/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> in a statement on Saturday.</p><p>The incident on Saturday involved a Chinese Coast Guard boat <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippines-says-china-blocked-water-cannoned-boat-s-china-sea-2023-08-06/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">firing its water cannon</a> at a Philippine vessel sailing through the South China Sea. The Philippine Coast Guard <a href="https://twitter.com/jaytaryela/status/1687997079162085376" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> the ship was carrying supplies to a Filipino military outpost.</p><p>The outpost in question? A massive, crumbling shipwreck that was repurposed by the Philippines and turned into a garrison in the South China Sea. </p><div type="image" title="The Sierra Madre was deliberately run around near the Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly group of islands in the South China Sea." height="2372" width="3500" msid="102605806" hostid="261" sizebytes="1013904"></div><p>In 1999, the Philippines <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2013/10/27/south-china-sea/index.html">deliberately ran the Sierra Madre</a>, a World War II-era warship, aground on the <a href="https://amti.csis.org/the-second-thomas-shoal-incident-and-the-reset-in-philippine-u-s-ties/">disputed Second Thomas Shoal</a>, also known as the Ren'ai Reef in China. The move was meant to reinforce the Philippines' sovereignty claims in the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ap-timeline-the-china-philippines-south-china-sea-dispute-2016-7">hotly contested South China Sea</a>. </p><p>According to the <a href="https://www.usni.org/magazines/naval-history-magazine/2022/february/measure-sierra-madre" target="_blank" rel="noopener">US Naval Magazine</a>, the Sierra Madre was originally the USS LST-821, a tank landing ship built for service in World War II. It was later renamed the USS Harnett County, and used in the Vietnam War. The vessel was then transferred to the South Vietnamese before being given to the Philippines.</p><p>The Sierra Madre has since become a makeshift military outpost. A small group of troops now resides in the ramshackle vessel.</p><div type="image" title="Troops stationed aboard the Sierra Madre, take part in a flag retreat, March 29, 2014." height="2227" width="3500" msid="102605809" hostid="261" sizebytes="521200"></div><p>The remote assignment can be depressing and isolating for the troops stationed there. Joey Loresto, a staff sergeant, told <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2013/10/27/south-china-sea/index.html">The New York Times</a> in 2013 that the outpost is "a lonely place."</p><p>Loresto told The Times that he preferred combat over being stationed on the Sierra Madre.  </p><div type="image" title="Philippine troops manning their communications room at the Sierra Madre, March 29, 2014." height="3111" width="4432" msid="102605813" hostid="261" sizebytes="652854"></div><p>The stranded vessel has also been a point of contention for China, which has since 1999 <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ChinaEmbassyManila/posts/pfbid02PpcB73aHqdHuFRmNNcZegYtqW8CNcJ8gjbcgTemUyXokhwdYeyZivEPXGz2i2jkBl">asked</a> the Philippines to tow the boat away. </p><p>And on Tuesday, a spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in the Philippines defended the Chinese Coast Guard's use of its water cannons.</p><p>"Regrettably, in disregard of China's repeated dissuasion and warning, the Philippines tried to deliver the construction materials for overhauling and reinforcing the 'grounded' military vessel," the Chinese spokesperson <a href="http://ph.china-embassy.gov.cn/eng/fyrth/202308/t20230808_11123893.htm?fbclid=IwAR3EU3OY3WcKQw_OBXeWPfdWuOJV-2f9p99zfUYzvfDyZfJ74ZsVsOZskC8">said</a> in a statement on Tuesday. "This is the cause of what happened there this time."</p><p>"Under such circumstances, the Chinese side was made to respond with necessary moves. China Coast Guard took warning law enforcement measures in accordance with the law," the spokesperson added.</p><p>Commodore Jay Tarriela, a spokesperson for the Philippine Coast Guard, <a href="https://twitter.com/jaytaryela/status/1687997079162085376">said</a> on Sunday that the Philippine Coast Guard "strongly condemns" the Chinese Coast Guard's "dangerous maneuvers and illegal use of water cannons," adding that they were a violation of international law.  </p><p>Although the US has no territorial claims in the South China Sea, it has carried out <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/30/asia/south-china-sea-us-navy-freedom-of-navigation-intl-hnk/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">regular</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-destroyer-challenges-chinese-claims-in-south-china-sea-2022-1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">naval</a> <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/24/asia/us-navy-operation-paracels-china-intl-hnk-ml/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">operations</a> in the region.</p><p>"The United States is defending every nation's right to fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows, as USS Benfold did this week. Nothing PRC says otherwise will deter us," the US Navy said in a <a href="https://www.c7f.navy.mil/Media/News/Display/Article/2904786/7th-fleet-destroyer-conducts-freedom-of-navigation-operation-in-south-china-sea/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">statement</a> on January 20, 2022, when it conducted a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-destroyer-challenges-chinese-claims-in-south-china-sea-2022-1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">freedom-of-navigation operation in the South China Sea</a>.</p>

This massive, crumbling shipwreck-turned-military station has become the latest flashpoint in tense US-China relations. Take a look inside.

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5818fd94b28a64775a8b4f3f-2400/ap_16185194436651.jpg" border="0" alt="china coast guard scarborough" data-mce-source="AP Photo/Renato Etac" data-mce-caption="In this Sept. 23, 2015, file photo, Chinese Coast Guard members approach Filipino fishermen as they confront each other off Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea, also called the West Philippine Sea." /><p class="source"><span>AP Photo/Renato Etac</span></p><p class="caption">Chinese Coast Guard members approach Filipino fishermen off Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea, also called the West Philippine Sea, September 23, 2015.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><ul class="summary-list"><li><strong>Tensions between between Washington and Beijing in the South China Sea appear to have spiked in recent days.</strong></li><li><strong>The situation there is already fraught, as many countries have challenged China over its expansive claims and its construction on contested territory.</strong></li><li><strong>The US, China, and the Philippines have already had a showdown over one of those territories, and things there could quickly escalate again.</strong></li></ul><p>Amid a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amid-trade-war-the-us-sanctions-china-for-buying-russian-weapons-2018-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">simmering trade war</a>, the US and Chinese militaries have exchanged <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-warplanes-live-fire-shooting-drills-south-china-sea-2018-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">tit-for-tat measures</a> with each other in recent days in and above the South China Sea.</p><p>Over the weekend, a US Navy destroyer sailed close to Chinese-occupied territory in the area, a freedom-of-navigation exercise meant in part to contest Beijing's expansive claims.</p><p><span>During that exercise, a Chinese destroyer approached the US ship - reportedly as close as 45 feet - in what Navy officials called an "unsafe and unprofessional maneuver."</span></p><p><span>"The tension is escalating, and that could prove to be dangerous to both sides," a senior US official <a href="https://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFKCN1MB178" target="_blank" rel="noopener">told Reuters</a> on Sunday, after China canceled a meeting between its officials and <keyword id="6354810" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="defense">Defense</keyword> Secretary Jim Mattis - the second senior-level meeting called off in a week.</span></p><p><span><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/58ee267e77bb7099008b7e04-840/asean-summit-southchinasea.jpg" border="0" alt="South China Sea Scarborough Shoal map" data-mce-source="Reuters" /><p class="source"><span>Reuters</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></span></p><p><span>The encounter between the US and Chinese ships took place near the Spratly Islands, at the southern end of the South China Sea. Farther north, at Scarborough Shoal, the US, the Philippines, and China have already butted heads, and their long-standing dispute there could quickly escalate.</span></p><p><span>The Philippines <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/afp-five-facts-on-asias-disputed-scarborough-shoal-2017-2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">took over</a> Scarborough after its independence in 1946. But in 2012, after a stand-off with the Philippines, China took de facto control of the shoal, blocking Filipino fishermen from entering.</span></p><p><span>Chinese control of Scarborough - about 130 miles west of the Philippine island of Luzon and about 400 miles from China's Hainan Island - is an ongoing concern for the Philippines and the US.</span></p><p><span>Given the shoal's proximity to the Luzon, if "<span style="font-weight: 400;">China puts air-defense missiles and surface-to-surface missiles there, like they have at other South China Sea islands, they could reach the Philippines," Bryan Clark, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, said in late August.</span></span></p><p><span><span style="font-weight: 400;">That would be "the most direct sort of pushback on the Philippines' attempt to assert control over Scarborough Shoal," said Clark, a former US Navy officer.</span></span></p><p><span><span style="font-weight: 400;">Beyond a challenge to Manila, a military presence on Scarborough could give China more leverage throughout the South China Sea.</span></span></p><p><span><span style="font-weight: 400;"><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/58ad9fa801fe58bd3c8b58e6-2000/rtsq6zj.jpg" border="0" alt="philippines south china sea" data-mce-source="Reuters/Erik de Castro" data-mce-caption="A Philippine flag flutters from BRP Sierra Madre, a dilapidated Philippine Navy ship that has been aground since 1999 and became a Philippine military detachment on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, part of the Spratly Islands, in the South China Sea March 29, 2014." /><p class="source"><span>Reuters/Erik de Castro</span></p><p class="caption">A Philippine flag on BRP Sierra Madre, a dilapidated Philippine navy ship that ran aground in 1999 and is now a Philippine military detachment on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, part of the Spratly Islands, in the South China Sea, March 29, 2014.</p></div><p></p></div></div></span></span></p><p><span><span style="font-weight: 400;">Scarborough would be one point in a triangle edged by the Spratlys and the Paracel Islands, both of which already house Chinese military outposts.</span></span></p><p><span><span style="font-weight: 400;">While China can use shore-based assets in the air-defense identification zone <a href="https://amti.csis.org/counter-co-east-china-sea-adiz/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">it declared</a> over the East China Sea in 2013, the eastern fringe of the South China Sea is out of range for that, Clark said.</span></span></p><p><span><span style="font-weight: 400;">"So their thought is, the Chinese would really like to develop Scarborough Shoal and put a radar on it so they can start enforcing an ADIZ, and that would allow them to kind of complete their argument that they have control and oversight over the South China Sea," Clark said.</span></span></p><p>Given Scarborough's proximity to bases in the Philippines and the country's capital, Manila, as well as to Taiwan, a presence there would extend China's intelligence-gathering ability and maritime-domain awareness, said Greg Poling, director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.</p><p><span><span style="font-weight: 400;">"But above and beyond the military implications ... China has a political interest in establishing control over all the waters and airspace within the nine-dash line, in both peace and war," Poling said in an email, referring to the boundary of China's expansive claim in the South China Sea.</span></span></p><h2>'What is our red line?'</h2><p><span><span style="font-weight: 400;"><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/580cb9a18d83b460078b6300-1555/xi jinping rodrigo duterte.jpg" border="0" alt="xi jinping rodrigo duterte" data-mce-source="Getty Images" data-mce-caption="Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, right is shown the way by Chinese President Xi Jinping before a signing ceremony on October 20, 2016 in Beijing, China." /><p class="source"><span>Getty Images</span></p><p class="caption">Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, right, with Chinese President Xi Jinping before a ceremony in Beijing, October 20, 2016.</p></div><p></p></div></div></span></span></p><p>After 2012, Manila took its case to the Permanent Court for Arbitration at The Hague, which <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/12/philippines-wins-south-china-sea-case-against-china" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ruled in favor</a> of the Philippines in July 2016, rejecting China's claims and finding that Beijing had interfered with Philippine rights in its exclusive economic zone, including at Scarborough. (EEZs can extend 230 miles from a country's coast.)</p><p>Ahead of that ruling, the US detected signs China was getting ready to reclaim land at the shoal, and then-President Barack Obama reportedly warned Chinese President Xi Jinping of serious consequences for doing so, which was followed by China withdrawing its ships from the area.</p><p>That warning was followed by increased Pentagon activity in the region, including flying A-10 Thunderbolts, which are ground-attack aircraft, near Scarborough a month later.</p><p>Tensions between China and Philippines eased after the ruling was issued, however, as Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, who took office in July 2016, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-philippines-relations-scarborough-shoal-fishing-access-2016-11" target="_blank" rel="noopener">pursued rapprochement</a>.</p><p>The Philippines said in February 2017 that it expected China to try to build on the reef, which Manila called "<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/afp-five-facts-on-asias-disputed-scarborough-shoal-2017-2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">unacceptable</a>." The following month, Chinese authorities <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/r-china-denies-reports-of-building-on-disputed-shoal-2017-3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">removed</a> comments by an official about building on Scarborough from state-backed media, raising <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2017/03/south-china-sea-is-china-considering-construction-work-at-scarborough-shoal-again/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">questions</a> about Beijing's plans.</p><p><span><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/555605faecad04e823e9a609-2400/rtx1ck5l.jpg" border="0" alt="South China Sea" data-mce-source="REUTERS/Ritchie B. Tongo" data-mce-caption="A Filipino soldier patrols at the shore of Pagasa island (Thitu Island) in the Spratly group of islands in the South China Sea, west of Palawan, Philippines, May 11, 2015. " /><p class="source"><span>REUTERS/Ritchie B. Tongo</span></p><p class="caption">A Filipino soldier patrols Pagasa island, or Thitu Island, in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, west of Palawan, Philippines, May 11, 2015.</p></div><p></p></div></div></span></p><p><span>More recently, the Philippines warned China of its limits at Scarborough.</span></p><p><span>"What is our red line? Our red line is that they cannot build on Scarborough [Shoal]," Philippine Foreign Secretary Alan Peter Cayetano <a href="https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2018/05/29/1819745/philippines-china-draw-red-lines-south-china-sea-dispute" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said in May</a>.</span></p><p><span>Cayetano said the other two red lines were Chinese action against Philippine troops stationed at Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratlys and the unilateral exploration of natural resources in the area. He <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/29/asia/duterte-cayetano-south-china-sea-intl/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> China had been made aware of the Philippine position and that Beijing had its own "<a href="https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2018/05/29/1819745/philippines-china-draw-red-lines-south-china-sea-dispute" target="_blank" rel="noopener">red line</a>" for the area.</span><span></span></p><p><span>In July, the acting chief justice of the Philippine supreme court, Antonio Carpio, said Manila should ask the US make Scarborough an "<a href="https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1009716/carpio-to-dfa-ask-us-asean-to-make-scarborough-shoal-an-official-red-line" target="_blank" rel="noopener">official red line</a>," requesting its recognition as Philippine territory under the US-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty, which obligates each to come to the aid of the other in case of attack.</span></p><p><span>"Duterte himself has reportedly said that Chinese construction of a permanent facility at Scarborough would be a red line for the Philippines," Poling said.</span></p><p><span>The Philippines' "one real option" to try to prevent Chinese construction on Scarborough would be to invoke that defense treaty, Poling said.</span></p><p><span><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/56c385ee6e97c62e008b7898-2400/rtx1ux9u.jpg" border="0" alt="south china sea uss lassen" data-mce-source="REUTERS/Senior Master Sgt. Adrian Cadiz/Department of Defense" data-mce-caption="US Secretary of Defense Ash Carter (R) speaks with US Navy Cmdr. Robert C. Francis Jr., as Carter and Malaysian Defense Minister Hishammuddin Hussein (Not Pictured) visited the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier in the South China Sea, in this handout photograph taken and released on November 5, 2015." /><p class="source"><span>REUTERS/Senior Master Sgt. Adrian Cadiz/Department of Defense</span></p><p class="caption">Defense Secretary Ash Carter with US Navy Cmdr. Robert C. Francis Jr., aboard the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt in the South China Sea, November 5, 2015.</p></div><p></p></div></div></span></p><p>It's not clear if the treaty applies to the shoal, Poling added, "but the treaty definitely does apply to an attack on Filipino armed forces or ships anywhere in the Pacific."</p><p>"So Manila would probably need to send Navy or Coast Guard ships to interfere with any work China attempted at Scarborough ... and then call for US intervention should China use force."</p><p>That could cause China to back off, as Obama's warning in 2016 did, Poling said.</p><p>While China has pulled back from previous attempts to build on the shoal, "they've got ships floating around the area just waiting for the chance," Clark said in late August. "So I wouldn't be surprised if China tries to restart that project in the next year to ... gauge what the US reaction is and see if they can get away with it."</p><p>That would almost certainly force the hand of the US and the Philippines.</p><p>"If China's able to start building an island there and put systems on it, and the Philippines doesn't resist ... all bets are off," Clark said. "China feels emboldened to say the South China Sea is essentially a Chinese area."</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-carrier-strike-groups-2018-6">How US Navy carrier strike groups turn the world's oceans into a buffer between the US and war</a></h3>        <div>            <iframe class="bijwplayerclass" data-player="jwplayer" src="https://content.jwplatform.com/players/JkIW3cGg-CEZHWCBG.html" width="100%" height="100%" frameborder="0" scrolling="auto" style="margin:0px;" allowfullscreen=""></iframe><script>function receiveMessage(event){ console.log(event.data.fullscreen); Android.fullscreen(event.data.fullscreen); }window.addEventListener("message", receiveMessage, false);</script>        </div>    </div>

Tensions are rising in the South China Sea, and a US ally there has already drawn 'red lines' with China

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/580747ad5124c9e9240ecd73-800/philippines-says-lifetime-sea-row-no-barrier-to-thawing-china-ties.jpg" alt="President of the Philippines Rodrigo Duterte (L) shakes hands with Chinese ambassador to the Philippines Zhao Jianhua (R), as Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (C) looks on, at airport in Beijing, China, October 18, 2016. CNS Photo via REUTERS" data-mce-source="Thomson Reuters" data-mce-caption="President of the Philippines Rodrigo Duterte shakes hands with Chinese ambassador to the Philippines Zhao Jianhua, as Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi looks on, at airport in Beijing" /><p class="source"><span>Thomson Reuters</span></p><p class="caption">Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte shakes hands with Chinese ambassador to the Philippines Zhao Jianhua, as Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi looks on, at an airport in Beijing.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte arrived in Beijing on Tuesday after months of overtures for better relations with the Chinese government.</p><p>His arrival in China has been accompanied by a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/ap-dutertes-deference-delights-china-but-is-questioned-at-home-2016-10" target="_blank">series of interviews</a> on that country's state media in which Duterte has voiced his affinity for the Asian giant and his hopes to affirm good relations between the two countries.</p><p>But Duterte's outreach to China is fraught with risks - even in a situation in which he gets what he wants, he may find himself returning to a Philippines with reduced standing in the region, weakened relations with a longstanding ally, and less leverage in its dealings with China.</p><p>Duterte, whose grandfather was an <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/ap-dutertes-deference-delights-china-but-is-questioned-at-home-2016-10" target="_blank">immigrant</a> from China's Xiamen province, has sought to underscore the closeness of his country and China and the necessity of improved relations with Beijing for Manila. "My grandfather is Chinese ... It's only China (that) can help us," Duterte <a href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-10/17/c_135760893.htm" target="_blank">said</a> in an interview with China's Xiahua.</p><p>His representatives have referred to the trip as way to "<a href="http://asia.nikkei.com/Viewpoints/Viewpoints/Bill-Hayton-Duterte-s-China-visit-could-move-regional-goalposts?page=1" target="_blank">reboot</a>" relations between the two countries. Ahead of the visit, <a href="http://asia.nikkei.com/Viewpoints/Viewpoints/Bill-Hayton-Duterte-s-China-visit-could-move-regional-goalposts?page=1" target="_blank">he has done much</a> to win Beijing's favor, including rebuffing the US over joint military exercises, downplaying an international-court ruling that rejected China's claims in the South China Sea, and criticizing US leadership.</p><p>From China, he hopes to <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/philippines-economic-tension-and-business-deals-negotiations-in-china-2016-10" target="_blank">secure advantageous trade and investment deals</a>. He has carted some 200 business leaders along with him to Beijing and has spent months <a href="http://asia.nikkei.com/Viewpoints/Viewpoints/Bill-Hayton-Duterte-s-China-visit-could-move-regional-goalposts?page=1" target="_blank">arguing</a> that China could provide infrastructure aid for railways in his home state of Mindanao and elsewhere in the Philippines. </p><p>"There will be a lot, I mean a lot, of business contracts that will be signed," Philippine Foreign Secretary Charles Jose has <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/afp-south-china-sea-looms-over-duterte-visit-to-beijing-2016-10" target="_blank">said</a>.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5807d51cc5240253018b596a-2400/rtx2phxt.jpg" alt="Philippines Rodrigo Duterte Beijing Manila Filipino" data-mce-source="REUTERS/Jason Lee" data-mce-caption="Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, left, speaks during a meeting with members of the Filipino community at a hotel in Beijing, China, October 19, 2016." /><p class="source"><span>REUTERS/Jason Lee</span></p><p class="caption">Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, left, speaks during a meeting with members of the Filipino community at a hotel in Beijing, China, October 19, 2016.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>The South China Sea has also loomed large in the lead up to the visit.</p><p>Even though <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/r-philippine-president-says-will-raise-arbitration-ruling-on-china-visit-2016-10" target="_blank">Duterte said he would not deviate</a> from the July court ruling and that he <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-philippines-exclusive-idUSKCN12I19I?utm_term=*Morning%20Brief&amp;utm_content=buffer5ea20&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_source=twitter.com&amp;utm_campaign=buffer" target="_blank">would not bring up</a> the issue during his visit, a Philippine official did <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-philippines-exclusive-idUSKCN12I19I?utm_term=*Morning%20Brief&amp;utm_content=buffer5ea20&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_source=twitter.com&amp;utm_campaign=buffer" target="_blank">tell Reuters</a> that he intended to raise the issue of Filipino fishermen, who had been denied access to waters around Scarborough since 2012, when China seized the shoal.</p><p>Duterte is not the first Philippine leader to enter office hoping to rebuild ties with China, and he may not be the first to see those hopes founder over Scarborough's rocky outcroppings.</p><p>Duterte has spoken with bravado about the shoal, asserting Philippine claims on it, a stance that has wide support among Filipinos. But since taking office he has moderated his tone about dealings with China. And <a href="http://asia.nikkei.com/Viewpoints/Viewpoints/Bill-Hayton-Duterte-s-China-visit-could-move-regional-goalposts?page=1" target="_blank">reports</a> over the last few days indicate may China may be willing to offer a deal: Recognize China's authority over Scarborough in exchange for Beijing granting Manila permission to fish in the waters around it.</p><p>"Everybody can go [to Scarborough Shoal], but there will be conditions," a Chinese source in contact with senior Chinese officials <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-philippines-exclusive-idUSKCN12I19I" target="_blank">told Reuters</a>, adding, "The two countries would have to form working groups to iron out details" when asked what those conditions would be.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5790fba688e4a77c708b966e-1215/screen shot 2016-07-21 at 12.42.10 pm.png" alt="Scarborough shoal map south china sea philippines manilla subic bay" data-mce-source="US Senator Dan Sullivan" data-link="https://news.usni.org/2016/07/19/take-position-scarborough-shoal" /><p class="source"><span><a href="https://news.usni.org/2016/07/19/take-position-scarborough-shoal">US Senator Dan Sullivan</a></span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>China's Global Times newspaper also called on Beijing to offer that deal - a stance that <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/afp-south-china-sea-looms-over-duterte-visit-to-beijing-2016-10" target="_blank">AFP noted</a> implied China had the right to grant those privileges.</p><p>But in being open to a deal with China over Scarborough, Duterte likely puts himself in a position where no matter what he comes home with, he will be greeted with disapproval.</p><p>"If he returns without any concession, it would be a humiliating blow since he's already gone out of his way to distance himself from the Philippines' allies," Jay Batongbacal, an ocean lawyer at the University of the Philippines, <a href="http://asia.nikkei.com/Viewpoints/Viewpoints/Bill-Hayton-Duterte-s-China-visit-could-move-regional-goalposts?page=2" target="_blank">told</a> Chatham House's Bill Hayton. "If he returns with a concession, he will be seen as having succumbed to China and to have abandoned long-standing good relations for a pittance."</p><p>A deal allowing Philippine fishermen to return to Scarborough's waters could "be a diplomatic masterstroke by China," Hayton <a href="http://asia.nikkei.com/Viewpoints/Viewpoints/Bill-Hayton-Duterte-s-China-visit-could-move-regional-goalposts?page=1" target="_blank">noted</a>.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5784436f5124c9877443e614-800/high-stakes-legal-ruling-looms-in-south-china-sea-dispute-2016-7.jpg" alt="A demonstrator speaks during a protest over the South China Sea disputes outside the Chinese Consulate by members of the " data-mce-source="Thomson Reuters" data-mce-caption="A demonstrator speaks during a protest over the South China Sea disputes outside the Chinese Consulate by members of the &amp;quotBayan&quot; (Nationalist) activist group in Makati City, Metro Manila" /><p class="source"><span>Thomson Reuters</span></p><p class="caption">A demonstrator speaks at a protest over the South China Sea disputes outside the Chinese Consulate by members of the "Bayan" (Nationalist) activist group in Makati City, Metro Manila.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>Such a deal would put a divide between Manila and Washington and allies in the region that have all worked to contain China in the South China Sea.</p><p>Concessions to China over Scarborough would likely alienate Duterte from his constituents at home, who have given him <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/philippine-president-rodrigo-duterte-china-trip-negotiations-2016-10" target="_blank">high approval marks</a> amid a bloody crackdown on drugs that has earned <keyword id="6356001" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="international">international</keyword> criticism.</p><p>"At the minimum [Duterte] shouldn't be seen as giving up our claims to Scarborough, or seen as backtracking given the favorable ruling of the Arbitral Tribunal," Renato Reyes, the secretary-general of radical grassroots coalition Bayan, <a href="http://asia.nikkei.com/Viewpoints/Viewpoints/Bill-Hayton-Duterte-s-China-visit-could-move-regional-goalposts?page=1" target="_blank">said, according to Hayton</a>.</p><p>Duterte's own ardent assertions about Manila's claims in the South China Sea - <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/18/world/asia/rodrigo-duterte-philippines-china-us.html" target="_blank">he vowed</a> to Jet Ski to Scarborough and plant the Philippine flag there - won him much support, and a reversal now would likely sour his standing at home.</p><p>A deal with Beijing could also damage the Philippines' ties with the US. Even though the US has <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/ap-philippine-leaders-china-visit-watched-for-shift-to-beijing-2016-10" target="_blank">encouraged</a> dialogue between Manila and Beijing (despite Duterte's tirades against the US), it has stressed the importance of adhering to the ruling issued in July.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5807d693c52402c9008b598d-2400/rtx2oig2.jpg" alt="Rodrigo Duterte Barack Obama Philippines US Asia ASEAN" data-mce-source="REUTERS/Jorge Silva" data-mce-caption="Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte arrives at the ASEAN Summit family photo while US President Barack Obama chats with the Sultan of Brunei Hassanal Bolkiah in Vientiane, Laos, September 7, 2016." /><p class="source"><span>REUTERS/Jorge Silva</span></p><p class="caption">Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte arrives at the ASEAN Summit family photo while US President Barack Obama chats with the Sultan of Brunei Hassanal Bolkiah in Vientiane, Laos, September 7, 2016.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>"I do not believe that public opinion in the Philippines or the national interest of the Philippines would support the relinquishing of Philippine rights, territory or sovereignty, and I can't imagine that is President Duterte's intention," Daniel Russel, the US's chief diplomat for East Asia, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/ap-philippine-leaders-china-visit-watched-for-shift-to-beijing-2016-10" target="_blank">said</a>.</p><p>In this context, Duterte's diatribes against US leaders become more dangerous.</p><p>Strained ties with Washington, which has maintained a military presence in the region to check Chinese ambitions, could make it harder for Manila to balance against more assertive Chinese actions in Scarborough and elsewhere. That strain may have already put Duterte in a worse bargaining position.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/57f6fcfa5124c991427e8a4f-800/special-report-in-dutertes-war-on-drugs-local-residents-help-draw-up-hit-lists.jpg" alt="An artwork featuring the image of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte with the letters D U and the number 3, a word play on the President's surname " data-mce-source="Thomson Reuters" data-mce-caption="An artwork featuring the image Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is seen on  a rice paddy in Los Banos city, Laguna province, south of Manila" /><p class="source"><span>Thomson Reuters</span></p><p class="caption">Afeaturing the image Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is seen on  a rice paddy in Los Banos city, Laguna province, south of Manila.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>"Duterte's bid to downgrade the US alliance," <a href="https://www.csis.org/people/gregory-b-poling" target="_blank">Gregory Poling</a>, director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies,<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/philippine-president-rodrigo-duterte-china-trip-negotiations-2016-10" target="_blank">told Business Insider ahead of the visit</a>, will damage the Philippines' negotiating position when Duterte sits down to talk with China.</p><p>"The threat of U.S. intervention is what has prevented more overt Chinese aggression at Second Thomas Shoal or Scarborough Shoal," Poling added. "Now Duterte is throwing that leverage overboard before he has even gotten into a room with Xi Jinping."</p><p>"If, when President Duterte goes to Beijing for the first time ... he really expects to have fruitful negotiations with China on the thorny issues of the South China Sea and try to reach a deal, why is he giving up his only leverage, which is the US treaty commitment?" Poling said on <a href="https://soundcloud.com/csis-57169780/decoding-dutertes-first-100-days" target="_blank">the CSIS podcast</a> earlier this month.</p><p>Duterte is slated to meet with Chinese leaders on October 20. What, if any, deals on the South China Sea emerge from that remain to be seen.</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/philippines-president-rodrigo-duterte-obama-can-go-to-hell-2016-10">Philippines President Duterte: 'Mr. Obama, you can go to hell'</a></h3>        <div>            <div>    <script src="http://player.ooyala.com/v3/6e12e8b3387a44daacfb73afba25a76e"></script>    <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="drZDg5NjE65bMRZXAqhSZ5WxuUQN9H9r" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>    <script>    if (typeof RunFunctions === 'undefined') { var RunFunctions = []; }     RunFunctions.push(function()    {         var ooyalapopvideo = OO.Player.create('ooyalaplayer_popvideo', 'drZDg5NjE65bMRZXAqhSZ5WxuUQN9H9r',{ autoplay: 'false' });     });    </script>    <noscript><div>Please enable Javascript to watch this video</div></noscript></div>        </div>        <script>(function() { function createPlayer() { OO.ready(function() { RunFunctions.forEach(function(ooyalaFunction) { ooyalaFunction(); }); RunFunctions = [];}); } createPlayer(); }()); </script>    </div>

The Philippines' president is headed to China with high hopes, but he may be in for a rough landing

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5774486d5124c93b0117f0b5-800/no-fanfare-as-philippines-duterte-prepares-to-take-office.jpg" alt="Philippine President-elect Rodrigo Duterte speaks during a conference with businessmen in Davao city, southern Philippines June 21, 2016. REUTERS/Lean Daval Jr " data-mce-source="Thomson Reuters" data-mce-caption="Philippine President-elect Rodrigo Duterte speaks during a conference with businessmen in Davao" /><p class="source"><span>Thomson Reuters</span></p><p class="caption">Philippine President-elect Rodrigo Duterte speaks during a conference with businessmen in Davao City, southern Philippines.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte will arrive in China for a state visit next week, a trip that has generated much enthusiasm <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/philippines-economic-tension-and-business-deals-negotiations-in-china-2016-10" target="_blank">among his country's business community</a>.</p><p>For Duterte, too, the visit is an opportunity, coming after months of his efforts to improve relations with Beijing.</p><p>China's appeal is both economic and political. The Asian giant, the world's second-largest economy, offers a lucrative export market for Philippine goods, and Duterte has said he's interested in securing <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/philippines-economic-tension-and-business-deals-negotiations-in-china-2016-10" target="_blank">investment for infrastructure projects</a> in his country from Chinese investors.</p><p>Diplomatically, Duterte's overtures to China have come alongside his rebukes of the US, the Philippines' longstanding ally. He has condemned the US for its colonial legacy in the Philippines and spoken of <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/afp-philippines-duterte-seeks-money-respect-in-china-2016-10" target="_blank">weaning his country off</a> American influence, citing Washington's <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/afp-philippines-duterte-seeks-money-respect-in-china-2016-10" target="_blank">declining</a> economic and military power.</p><p>Duterte's eastern ambitions may tax his political capital, however. While he has high approval ratings (<a href="http://thediplomat.com/2016/10/the-truth-about-dutertes-popularity-in-the-philippines/" target="_blank">inline</a> with his predecessors at the same point in their terms), support for outreach to Beijing may be quite different.</p><p>On foreign policy, a June survey of Filipinos found China had a <a href="http://thediplomat.com/2016/10/the-truth-about-dutertes-popularity-in-the-philippines/" target="_blank">net trust rating of -24</a>, classified as "poor." The US, on the other hand, is generally very popular, with a poll last summer finding <a href="http://www.pewglobal.org/2015/06/23/1-americas-global-image/" target="_blank">92% approval</a> among Filipinos.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5784436f5124c9877443e614-800/high-stakes-legal-ruling-looms-in-south-china-sea-dispute-2016-7.jpg" alt="A demonstrator speaks during a protest over the South China Sea disputes outside the Chinese Consulate by members of the " data-mce-source="Thomson Reuters" data-mce-caption="A demonstrator speaks during a protest over the South China Sea disputes outside the Chinese Consulate by members of the &amp;quotBayan&quot; (Nationalist) activist group in Makati City, Metro Manila" /><p class="source"><span>Thomson Reuters</span></p><p class="caption">A demonstrator speaks during a protest over the South China Sea disputes outside the Chinese Consulate by members of the "Bayan" (Nationalist) activist group in Makati City, Metro Manila.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>"What is being asked by critics in the Philippines is why does an independent foreign policy mean distancing yourself from your traditional allies ..." <a href="https://www.csis.org/people/gregory-b-poling" target="_blank">Gregory Poling</a>, director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and <keyword id="6356001" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="international">International</keyword> Studies, said on <a href="https://soundcloud.com/csis-57169780/decoding-dutertes-first-100-days" target="_blank">the CSIS podcast</a>. "Why is a prerequisite for a close relationship with China to spurn the US ..." </p><p>It may be that Duterte is trying play China and the US off each other in order to secure the best deals and relations for the Philippines, but the way in which he has done that risks overplaying his hand, spoiling one relationship for another that may not be more beneficial.</p><p>During his presidential campaign, Duterte said he was willing to "<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/afp-philippines-duterte-seeks-money-respect-in-china-2016-10" target="_blank">set aside</a>" his country's dispute with China over the latter's claims in the South China Sea in return for infrastructure investment. And, after a July 12 international-court ruling rejecting China's expansive claims, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/philippines-economic-tension-and-business-deals-negotiations-in-china-2016-10" target="_blank">Duterte hasn't </a><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/philippines-economic-tension-and-business-deals-negotiations-in-china-2016-10" target="_blank">capitalized</a> on the legal victory.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/56c630fa2e5265b6008b8153-840/south china seas.jpg" alt="south china seas" data-mce-source="Reuters" /><p class="source"><span>Reuters</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>He's also backed off of some of his own country's claims in the sea. "Let's just not dwell on Scarborough because we cannot fight them," Duterte <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/afp-philippines-duterte-seeks-money-respect-in-china-2016-10" target="_blank">said this week</a>, referring to a fishing area seized by China in 2012.</p><p>In this context, Duterte's simultaneous spurning of the US and embrace of China is "doubly concerning from a more practical standpoint, because if ... he really expects to have fruitful negotiations with China on the thorny issues of the South China Sea and try to reach a deal, why is he giving up his only leverage, which is the US treaty commitment?" Poling <a href="https://soundcloud.com/csis-57169780/decoding-dutertes-first-100-days" target="_blank">asked</a>.</p><p>"Duterte's bid to downgrade the U.S. alliance," Poling told Business Insider, will damage the Philippines' negotiating position when Duterte sits down to talk with China.</p><p>"The threat of U.S. intervention is what has prevented more overt Chinese aggression at Second Thomas Shoal or Scarborough Shoal," Poling added. "Now Duterte is throwing that leverage overboard before he has even gotten into a room with Xi Jinping."</p><h2>'Popularity is especially fickle in the Philippines'</h2><p>Two polls gauging Duterte's approval since he took office this summer have put his support on par with that of his predecessors at the same point in their terms, as <a href="http://thediplomat.com/2016/10/the-truth-about-dutertes-popularity-in-the-philippines/" target="_blank">noted</a> by Prashanth Parameswaran at The Diplomat.</p><p>The <a href="http://www.sws.org.ph/swsmain/artcldisppage/?artcsyscode=ART-20161006061108" target="_blank">+64 approval rating</a> he garnered in poll of his first 100 days in office was only 4 percentage points <a href="http://thediplomat.com/2016/10/the-truth-about-dutertes-popularity-in-the-philippines/" target="_blank">higher</a> than that of Benigno Aquino III, Duterte's predecessor, and of Joseph Estrada, president from 1998 to 2001, and 2 percentage points lower than Fidel Ramos, president from 1992 to 1998, at the same point in their terms.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5774a04f5124c9c65fa4d0c3-800/philippines-duterte-sworn-as-president-rails-against-crime.jpg" alt="Incoming President Rodrigo Duterte and outgoing President Benigno Aquino salute the honor guards before Aquino leaves the Malacanang Palace in Manila, Philippines June 30, 2016.  REUTERS/Erik De Castro" data-mce-source="Thomson Reuters" data-mce-caption="Incoming President Rodrigo Duterte and outgoing President Benigno Aquino salute the honor guards before Aquino leaves the Malacanang Palace in Manila" /><p class="source"><span>Thomson Reuters</span></p><p class="caption">Incoming President Rodrigo Duterte and outgoing President Benigno Aquino salute the honor guards before Aquino leaves the Malacanang Palace in Manila.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>Duterte's 91% approval rating in a July poll was only <a href="http://thediplomat.com/2016/10/the-truth-about-dutertes-popularity-in-the-philippines/" target="_blank">slightly higher</a> than Aquino's when he came into office.</p><p>And, as Parameswaran <a href="http://thediplomat.com/2016/10/the-truth-about-dutertes-popularity-in-the-philippines/" target="_blank">noted</a>, a close reading of survey results regarding Duterte's policies - the drug war in particular - reveals ambivalence on some points and dismay on others.</p><p>"Popularity is especially fickle in the Philippines and can change back and forth quite dramatically very quickly either because of or in spite of certain policies, and often interacting with elite opinion, sentiment within key institutions like the military and legislature, and, of course, events or crises," Parameswaran <a href="http://thediplomat.com/2016/10/the-truth-about-dutertes-popularity-in-the-philippines/" target="_blank">writes</a>.</p><p>The fickleness of Philippine sentiment may again be evident after Duterte returns from Beijing.</p><p>"We'll see how popular he is in the next round, when it's made clear that he probably doesn't get a deal from China," Poling <a href="https://soundcloud.com/csis-57169780/decoding-dutertes-first-100-days" target="_blank">said</a>, and "that he might very well drive a wedge between the Philippines and its only treaty ally."</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/philippines-president-duterte-hitler-slaughter-drug-addicts-2016-9">Philippines president compares himself to Hitler - says he'd be happy to 'slaughter' 3 million drug addicts</a></h3>        <div>            <div>    <script src="http://player.ooyala.com/v3/6e12e8b3387a44daacfb73afba25a76e"></script>    <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="tkbnk2NjE6CN18m9GDR-Y6fDQgUN9iy3" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>    <script>    if (typeof RunFunctions === 'undefined') { var RunFunctions = []; }     RunFunctions.push(function()    {         var ooyalapopvideo = OO.Player.create('ooyalaplayer_popvideo', 'tkbnk2NjE6CN18m9GDR-Y6fDQgUN9iy3',{ autoplay: 'false' });     });    </script>    <noscript><div>Please enable Javascript to watch this video</div></noscript></div>        </div>        <script>(function() { function createPlayer() { OO.ready(function() { RunFunctions.forEach(function(ooyalaFunction) { ooyalaFunction(); }); RunFunctions = [];}); } createPlayer(); }()); </script>    </div>

The Philippines' president is betting big on a trip to China, but he may be overplaying his hand

<p></p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5787da434321f16c018b84c4-2400/rtr3ex37.jpg" alt="scs bless it" data-mce-source="Quang Le/Reuters" data-mce-caption="A Vietnamese naval soldier stands quard at Thuyen Chai island in the Spratly archipelago January 17, 2013."><p class="source"><span>Quang Le/Reuters</span></p><p class="caption">A Vietnamese naval soldier stands guard at Thuyen Chai island in the Spratly archipelago January 17, 2013.</p></img></div><p></p></div></div>China's lion-share claims to&#xa0;the resource-rich waters in the South China Sea took a huge blow earlier this month after the&#xa0;Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) issued a landmark&#xa0;<a href="https://www.scribd.com/document/318075111/South-China-Sea-Ruling" target="_blank">ruling</a>&#xa0;dismissing China's&#xa0;"<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/map-of-china-in-the-south-china-sea-2016-6" target="_blank">nine-dash line</a>"&#xa0;territorial claim.<p>The court found that&#xa0;Beijing&#xa0;had violated the Philippines' economic and sovereign rights and concluded there was no legal basis for China's nine-dash line, which encompasses approximately 85% of the South China Sea.</p><p>While the&#xa0;PCA ruling&#xa0;is only binding between Beijing and Manila, it does, however, set a legal foundation&#xa0;by determining that the rules of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNLCLOS) take precedence over China's historic claims.</p><p>In short, if there is no "nine-dash line," other stakeholders&#xa0;in the South China Sea may be inspired to&#xa0;file lawsuits against China if Beijing refuses to compromise on access to the resource-rich&#xa0;waters.</p><p>Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, the Philippines, Taiwan, and China <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/claims-in-south-china-sea-2016-7" target="_blank">all have claims in the&#xa0;South China Sea</a>, making the region one of the most disputed areas&#xa0;on the planet.</p><p></p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/57961d1388e4a778008ba660-918/map%20south%20china%20sea.jpg" alt="map south china sea" data-mce-source="Reuters"><p class="source"><span>Reuters</span></p><p class="caption">Map shows what everyone says is theirs in the South China Sea.</p></img></div><p></p></div></div><p>On July 12, a panel of legal experts at the Center for Strategic and <keyword id="6356001" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="international">International</keyword> Studies' sixth annual <a href="https://www.csis.org/events/sixth-annual-csis-south-china-sea-conference" target="_blank">South China Sea conference</a>&#xa0;commented on the impact of the decision on other&#xa0;claimants.</p><p>"Because it's invalid, will it encourage other states" to push back against China's claims, Dr. James Kraska, professor of Oceans Law and Policy at the US Naval War College asked, referring to the nine-dash line. "I think so and I hope so," he told Business Insider in a question-and-answer session.</p><p>"It will have enormous impact on future jurisprudence and on the perceived legitimacy of other claims in the South China Sea and around the world," said Gregory Poling,&#xa0;CSIS&#xa0;fellow and director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative.</p><p></p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5796253a4321f171088ba774-2400/ap_12032019865.jpg" alt="vietnam navy" data-mce-source="AP" data-mce-caption="Vietnamese Navy's honor guard arrive at the welcome ceremony for Myanmar President Thein Sein in Hanoi, Vietnam on Tuesday, March 20, 2012."><p class="source"><span>AP</span></p><p class="caption">Vietnamese Navy's honor guard arrive at the welcome ceremony for Myanmar President Thein Sein in Hanoi, Vietnam on Tuesday, March 20, 2012.</p></img></div><p></p></div></div>According to a report from&#xa0;financial market analysis firm&#xa0;BMI Research, Vietnam "is likely to be the key beneficiary from the spillover effects of the ruling."<p>Because of similarities in the PCA's ruling, Vietnam would most likely win in a maritime row against Beijing's claims in the Paracels but&#xa0;would have to abandon all claims on&#xa0;Mischief Reef and Second Thomas Shoal since those areas fall under the Philippines' Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).&#xa0;</p><p>Vietnam would also have to&#xa0;withdraw troops from&#xa0;Alison Reef, Tennent Reef, and Cornwallis Reef in the Spratlys.</p><h3>Here's the full report from BMI Research:</h3><p><span><div><iframe class="scribd_iframe_embed" src="https://www.scribd.com/embeds/319242034/content?start_page=1&amp;view_mode=scroll&amp;access_key=key-T5sCXIsB2Kv3wD1WurQg&amp;show_recommendations=true&amp;show_upsell=false" data-auto-height="false" data-aspect-ratio="0.7068965517241379" scrolling="no" id="doc_91634" width="800" height="1066" frameborder="0"></iframe></div></span></p><h3><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/category/south-china-sea" target="_blank">Click here to read more about the South China Sea »</a></h3>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-us-navy-just-flexed-its-muscles-in-the-worlds-most-contested-region-2016-6">The US Navy just flexed its muscles in the world's most contested region</a></h3>        <div>            <div>    <script src="http://player.ooyala.com/v3/6e12e8b3387a44daacfb73afba25a76e"></script>    <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="pjZ21hNDE68K5rW-eqJMqAdR3UKOkBx3" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>    <script>    if (typeof RunFunctions === 'undefined') { var RunFunctions = []; }     RunFunctions.push(function()    {         var ooyalapopvideo = OO.Player.create('ooyalaplayer_popvideo', 'pjZ21hNDE68K5rW-eqJMqAdR3UKOkBx3',{ autoplay: 'false' });     });    </script>    <noscript><div>Please enable Javascript to watch this video</div></noscript></div>        </div>        <script>(function() { function createPlayer() { OO.ready(function() { RunFunctions.forEach(function(ooyalaFunction) { ooyalaFunction(); }); RunFunctions = [];}); } createPlayer(); }()); </script>    </div>

You Searched For "Second Thomas Shoal" and got 10 results

China Philippines clash: What happened between Chinese coast guard sailors and Philippine naval vessels this week?

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China is gradually amping up its military aggression in a 'boiling frog' strategy, US Indo-Pacific commander says

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This massive, crumbling shipwreck-turned-military station has become the latest flashpoint in tense US-China relations. Take a look inside.

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Tensions are rising in the South China Sea, and a US ally there has already drawn 'red lines' with China

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The Philippines' president is headed to China with high hopes, but he may be in for a rough landing

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The Philippines' president is betting big on a trip to China, but he may be overplaying his hand

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