Fatih Birol’s Post

This could be another set back for energy transition to clean one as of course the cost is a main factor. The cheaper the oil, the less incentive for business to switch

More energy from more sources benefits everyone.

Some valuable insights offered by Saad on potential implications driven by the upward revision in forecast oil demand. One might consider the impact on cost of fuel and related goods, bitumen included, over the coming months. Also worth noting the risk to inflation, not necessarily directly influenced by the commodity itself but rather the fiscal policies that may be adopted purely as a result of its EXPECTED impact.

Thanks to the inexorable growth of EVs & improved efficiency, the International Energy Agency (IEA)'s latest medium-term outlook expects GLOBAL DEMAND FOR OIL TO PEAK IN 2029 (at ~4% above 2023 demand), leading to a "major surplus" in global oil supply. https://lnkd.in/er6mP2ht This would be a HUGE turning point in global history (and the shift away from fossil fuels). Electric vehicles (2, 3 and 4-wheeled) are kicking away the ladder of growth that oil companies once envisioned from emerging economies.

#AnatomyofaFall: Despite price drops, the European Union's gas consumption saw a 7% decline in 2023, prompting concerns about structural changes in demand dynamics. In this new commentary, CGEP's Anne-Sophie Corbeau and Akos Losz delve into the mystery of weak recovery in industrial gas use. Their key points include: 📉 Industrial gas usage remained subdued in 2023, indicating enduring impacts of the crisis. 🏭 Sectors like chemicals, minerals, and metals were hit hardest, revealing ongoing challenges. 💡 Factors such as price risk strategies, subsidies, import substitution, and macroeconomic headwinds contribute to sustained weakness. 🌍 Amid recovery efforts, factors like import competition and decarbonization goals shape the trajectory of gas demand. Read more on the factors contributing to the sustained weakness in European industrial gas demand: https://lnkd.in/eKgCNrsM

What is the key takeaway from International Energy Week currently underway in London? The answer to that question is higher oil demand forecasts, according to our chief economist Saad Rahim.   “People came into the year expecting a very balanced market -- 1.1.m barrels a day of demand growth and about 1.1m barrels per day of non-Opec supply growth, “ Saad told Bloomberg TV on Wednesday.   “But now we are starting to see demand forecasts being revised upwards,” Saad added, citing the strength of the US economy, India (now the world's third largest oil consumer), and the aviation sector in China as the key drivers for the upward revisions.   “You’re hearing the phrase ’upside risk’ a lot more than you have in the past couple of years,” he said.  You can watch the full interview with Saad on the link below: 📹 https://lnkd.in/eik3u7Qi Energy Institute #oilandgas

The #oilindustry stands on the precipice of #transformation, as Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran from The Economist insightfully argues in a new special report. The next 50 years will indeed be distinct from the previous five decades, as the #world grapples with the question of how long the transition away from oil will take. While peak oil supply has long been a topic of discussion, the narrative has shifted to the demand side, where efficiency standards, technological advancements, and environmental concerns are reshaping the landscape. Despite these pressures, global oil demand continues to rise due to factors such as emerging market demand and the needs of sectors like petrochemicals. Although the end of the #oilandgas age remains elusive, a consensus is emerging that oil demand growth will peak before the end of the decade, as evidenced by analyses from the International Energy Agency and major oil and gas companies. The critical question is what happens after this peak and how long the subsequent transition will last. The reality is that oil will remain a necessity for some time, even as demand begins to ebb. Recognizing this, it is crucial to balance the pursuit of revolutionary change with the pragmatic understanding that oil will continue to play a role in the global energy mix. The transition away from oil will be a marathon, not a sprint, and the industry must navigate this complex and evolving landscape with both #vision and #pragmatism.

Energy prices are set to average lower in 2023 compared to last year amid weaker global demand prospects and a healthy supply outlook. As per the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) estimates, healthy oil supply growth in the US, Canada, Brazil, Norway and Guyana is expected to offset the restrained output in Russia. There are, however, upside risks, including stronger-than-expected demand from China’s manufacturing sector, cuts in global supply and US dollar depreciation.. Although energy prices eased from the 2022 peak, businesses continue to face elevated cost pressures and squeezed margins, especially across energy-intensive industries, such as chemicals, metals, cement and transportation. To mitigate the impact, companies are increasing investments in renewable energy and energyefficient solutions, optimising energy consumption, turning to alternative fuels, stockpiling, price hedging and relocating to regions with lower energy costs. #inflation #energy #optimization #costcontrol #cashisking #cfoinsights #expensereductionanalysts

As a potential historical reference point, we should consider that we’ve been transitioning off of coal for over 100 years. - 150 Years of Exports and What It Means for Energy: https://lnkd.in/gd4P7aiw India and China continue to permit and build a staggering number of coal-fired plants to meet their growing energy demands. The road to prosperity that we the Lucky Billion have enjoyed in the West, predicated on Oil & Gas, is still to be travelled by the remaining 7 Billion. - The Rise of Emissions in Developing Nations: Key Takeaways for the Energy Sector: https://lnkd.in/g6d3KjtT Producing electricity isn’t going to help a developing nation that hasn’t got the infrastructure or appliances to use it. Around 2.3 Billion still cook with solid fuels and kerosene. Switching to clean burning gas would be huge for them. - The Sustainable Development Goals: https://lnkd.in/g4YQJPKk #energytransition #secure #reliable #affordable #energydemand #getcsolutions