Silvercrest Asset Management’s Post

Boscher's Big Picture - Was inflation transitory after all? In his last update of the year, our CIO Kevin Boscher looks back at the macro landscape of 2023 and where the opportunities could come in 2024. 'The global macro backdrop remains hugely uncertain and fraught with risks, but 2024 should be a year of disinflation, lower interest rates, higher bond prices and a continuation and broadening out of the equity recovery. We still have little clarity on whether the economic slowdown will result in a “soft landing” or a more serious recession but in any case, investors should be looking forward to a more favourable growth outlook as the year progresses.' Read the full update on our website https://lnkd.in/e_7eCM2A #MacroEconomics #Investments #InvestingforAll

Inflation has come in hotter than expected over the past 3 months putting a dent in the thesis of soft landing. It looks like the flight is not making a landing for now. The primary driver has been energy prices which have steadily climbed since the start of the year. This opens the door for potential further rate hikes by the FED or other mechanisms to induce reduced growth in the economy. It is too early to tell. However, one fact that is very clear is that typically inflation episodes are very sticky and it is not out of the ordinary to see inflation reigniting after a downward glide, it is to be expected. So far the economy has been adding jobs, manufacturing has been picking up, services are still growing - overall things are still great. If one is looking for soft spots, you can find it in retail sales and industrial production that are in the negative for the last couple of months. The financial markets have responded to the inflation report - bond markets have pushed up interest rates while the stock market is correcting a bit. If the earnings report for Q1 2024 tells a story of positive earnings growth rate, the markets will be back roaring again. While most market strategies are very optimistic about the economy, there are a few dissenting voices that forecast a coming recession for 2024. For full details, please check out the blog: Assessing the Economic Landscape: Inflation, Growth, and Market Sentiment https://lnkd.in/emcEbC4V

Here is our update on the economic developments for April 2024.

Last week’s surge in equities and strong market gains have sparked optimism, but are we ignoring warning signs about the economy? Get the latest from Brent Schutte in Northwestern Mutual’s Weekly Market Commentary.

Last week’s surge in equities and strong market gains have sparked optimism, but are we ignoring warning signs about the economy? Get the latest from Brent Schutte in Northwestern Mutual’s Weekly Market Commentary.

Last week’s surge in equities and strong market gains have sparked optimism, but are we ignoring warning signs about the economy? Get the latest from Brent Schutte in Northwestern Mutual’s Weekly Market Commentary.

Last week’s surge in equities and strong market gains have sparked optimism, but are we ignoring warning signs about the economy? Get the latest from Brent Schutte in Northwestern Mutual’s Weekly Market Commentary.

Last week’s surge in equities and strong market gains have sparked optimism, but are we ignoring warning signs about the economy? Get the latest from Brent Schutte in Northwestern Mutual’s Weekly Market Commentary.

Last week’s surge in equities and strong market gains have sparked optimism, but are we ignoring warning signs about the economy? Get the latest from Brent Schutte in Northwestern Mutual’s Weekly Market Commentary.