Long-distance movers targeting less competitive, less expensive housing markets

By Orphe Divounguy , Zillow Senior Economist

Key Takeaways:

• Despite having higher average income than most movers, United Van Lines movers moved to less expensive metro areas with more active for-sale listings.
• Metros with more outbound moves than inbound moves tended to experience lower population and home value growth immediately in the year that followed.
• Among the 50 largest metro areas, the top destinations in terms of net migration for United Van Lines movers were Charlotte, Providence, Indianapolis, Orlando and Raleigh.

A Zillow analysis of United Van Lines move data¹ shows that movers tend to move to metro areas that are less expensive and have less competition from other home buyers. This trend has intensified in the past couple of years as housing affordability declined. 

Although housing affordability has always played a key role in explaining migration patterns, the pandemic increase in home values and the more recent increase in mortgage rates appears to have intensified the search for more affordable housing. 

Affordability for both home buyers and renters has declined significantly over the past four years. The share of median household income needed to pay rent has risen from 26.7% in November 2019 to 29.9% in November 2023. The share of income needed for a monthly mortgage payment on a typical home purchase has risen even more dramatically, from 22.7% to 38.6% over the same time frame. In many places, costs are so high that a family making the median household income wouldn’t even qualify for a mortgage. 

In 2023 United Van Lines movers relocated to a metro where a home would save them, on average, about $7,500 compared to where they came from. That’s despite having higher average household incomes than other movers. That’s compared to $8,900 in savings at the peak of the pandemic housing market in 2021, but up from just $2,800 in 2019. As the cost of space increased, United Van Lines movers opted for less expensive markets.

Although the United Van Lines data is not representative of all movers — United Van Lines movers, the subset of households that choose to use United Van Lines services, tend to be older and with higher incomes than other movers — Census data migration shows a similar pattern.

A quick look at the American Community Survey (ACS) migration flows reveals a similar pattern. In 2021, interstate movers relocated to a metro where they could save about $10,000 on average when buying a home. That’s compared to savings of a little less than $700 in 2019, before the pandemic. 

Among the 50 largest metros by population, the metros with the most outbound moves relative to inbounds in 2023 were Chicago, San Diego, Cincinnati, Detroit, Boston, Riverside, Memphis, Oklahoma City, New York and Buffalo.

The 10 metros with the highest net in-migration from United Van Lines movers were Charlotte, Providence, Indianapolis, Orlando, Raleigh, Jacksonville, Nashville, Houston, Birmingham and San Antonio.

The relationship between home values and population is complex. On the one hand, an increase in the homebuying age population raises housing demand and home values, which in turn stimulates housing supply. On the other hand, higher home values resulting in less affordable housing can dissuade households from moving in and depress population growth.

Metros with more United Van Lines outbound moves than inbound moves tended to experience less growth in their working-age population in the same year and lower growth in home values in the year that immediately followed.

This post was originally published on Zillow Research

¹ The data reflects only where United Van Lines customers are moving to and from. However, comparing home values and active listings for origin and destination markets of all movers in the American Community Survey reveals a similar pattern.